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Florida Realtors Real Estate Trends: No home price bubble

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 25, 2019 – To Realtors, homeowners and others who ask, "Are we in another house price bubble?" – the answer is "No," according to Dr. Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist, who spoke to a crowd of more than 400 Realtors at the 2019 Florida Real Estate Trends summit Thursday during Florida Realtors Mid-Winter Business Meetings.

Kiefer said he and other analysts have been researching home price growth trends and other economic factors to answer the "bubble" question.

"Home prices are up, but that by itself is no indication of a bubble; you need an element of speculation or credit financing involved as well," he said. "We looked at credit, capacity and collateral. In the mortgage space, credit has not expanded in anything like we saw a decade ago. As a result, the default potential rate is pretty low. And we clearly don't see the types of financing products that pushed the dynamics then."

While incomes are up, they're not matching the pace of rising home prices, he noted.

Still, mortgage debt payments as a percentage of disposable income has declined significantly, largely due to lower mortgage interest rates.

"In the downturn, people were taking on a lot of debt, which in turn pushed up prices," Kiefer said. "Now, looking at total mortgage debt compared to equity, we're not seeing that kind of speculation or problem."

He added, "So, when I'm asked about a bubble, I do say no – but the way I pause before I say no has been extending a bit as home prices continue to rise more than incomes. However, in our view (Freddie Mac economists), house prices will moderate as mortgage rates rise."

So, what's ahead for the U.S. economy and housing market in 2019?

"Employment and a little bit of income growth will be key to supporting homebuyer demand," Kiefer said. "Inflation is going to drive the Federal Reserve policy. It's been pretty tame the past few months. We at Freddie Mac expect one to two rate hikes in 2019 as opposed to the four hikes in 2018, though that will be data-dependent."

The general U.S. economy should experience modest growth, he said, while mortgage interest rates should gradually rise throughout the rest of the year and be somewhere around 5 percent by the end of the year – about a 1/2 percentage point rise from the current rate.

"When interest rates rise, the housing market responds pretty negatively and home sales go down," Kiefer said. "But looking ahead to spring, we should see stabilization of home sales and modest growth in the U.S. economy. Our forecast nationally is for housing prices to moderate substantially over the next few years. However, one of the biggest challenges for the overall economy is a lack of new housing supply."

2019 economic forecast for Florida

Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O'Connor discussed the outlook for Florida's economy and housing market in the coming year. In terms of job growth, Florida has done better than the U.S. for the past few years (since 2013) and ended 2018 with an annual job growth rate of 3.3 percent compared to the U.S. figure of 1.9 percent, he said. The state's population growth has not yet returned to the 2 percent annual growth rate it had before the downturn, but the latest Census figures show a 1.5 percent population growth rate from 2017-2018, ranking Florida No. 5 among states.

Looking at Florida's price growth trends for single-family homes, the market is bifurcated, he noted.

"We're finding that different price tiers are definitely appreciating at different rates," O'Connor said. "The range up to $200,000 is up almost 12 percent (in price growth), while the range of $600,000 and over has less growth. There's a lack of affordable housing supply in the lower price tier, while the upper levels are almost a balanced market."

Lack of new housing supply is constraining the market and more construction is needed, he said. However, construction is hampered by a shortage of skilled construction workers, rising cost of materials, lack of land available and other factors.

In good news for Florida's housing market, active inventory at the end of 2018 was up compared to the end of 2017.

O'Connor added, "For perspective, it's not a significantly huge increase in active inventory: it's up 13.3 percent for existing single-family homes and up 8 percent for condo-townhouse properties. And, it's notable that the $200,000 to $300,000 price tier of housing inventory is up, which is the sweet spot for millennials. Despite the fact that we have slightly higher inventory, closed sales are also still rising (with the exception of December's data). Rising inventory is, so far, a good thing."

With current data showing that Florida is outpacing the nation in terms of home sales and employment growth, he forecasts that 2019 should see about a 1 percent growth in home sales and maybe 3 to 4 percent price growth. That's in contrast to the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) forecast for national home and condo sales to remain relatively flat in 2019.

Florida's water issues

While the housing market and economy were the focus of the first half of the event, the second half focused on Florida's water quality issues.

"We may not be the solution, but we can be a big part of raising awareness and educating ourselves and others about Florida's water quality issues," said 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, Water quality experts speaking at the summit included Dr. Paul Julian, Office of Ecosystems Projects, Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP); Dr. Greg DeAngelo, deputy director, Division of Environmental Assessment and Restoration, DEP; and Dr. Kate Hubbard, research scientist, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission-Fish and Wildlife Research Institute (FWC-FWRI).

Hubbard, who leads the harmful algal bloom monitoring and research program, provided an overview of red tide and explained how the monitoring and research program works. Red tide is a marine (seawater) harmful algal bloom while blue-green algae is a freshwater bloom.

"The toxins in red tide kill fish, birds, sea turtles, manatees and dolphins," she explained. "Then there are health impacts on humans, Filtering shellfish, like clams, oysters and mussels, accumulate the toxins and can cause neurotoxic shellfish poisoning in human consumers. This toxin also is carried in aerosol form in sea spray and causes respiratory irritation in humans."

Red tide blooms begin 10-40 miles offshore, in deep water, Hubbard said. It is ecologically flexible, with a high tolerance for different temperatures and levels of salinity. It also can use many different sources to fuel its growth, including dead fish.

"A huge network of people helps in monitoring and researching red tide," she said. "Red tide has been occurring for centuries. Strategies to improve resilience and mitigation are continually being evaluated, created and implemented."

Realtors and others can check on red tide on a daily basis by going to myfwc.com/redtidestatus.

The Miami Association of Realtors®was the title sponsor for the 2019 Florida Real Estate Trends event; co-sponsors included the Realtors®of the Palm Beaches and Greater Fort Lauderdale; the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors®; Orlando Regional Realtor®Association; and the Royal Palm Coast Realtor®Association.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Remodeling Magazine releases 2019 Cost vs. Value Report

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 23, 2019 – Remodeling Magazine released its 32nd annual Cost vs. Value Report, which compares the cost of popular remodeling projects to how much the investment will improve a home's resale value.

The 2019 report surveyed more than 3,200 real estate professionals about returns for 22 projects in 136 U.S. markets, an increase from 100 markets last year. The full report is posted online.

For all projects, the overall cost-to-value ratio is 66.1 percent, which is slightly ahead of last year but well below the decade-high of 71.2 percent in 2014.

As in prior years, there are significant variations in different regions. The average payback nationwide for the 22 projects in the 2019 Cost vs. Value report ranges from a high of 123.8 percent for a garage door replacement in the Pacific region, to a low of 45.0 percent for an upscale master suite addition in the mid-Atlantic region.

"With the increasing costs of building materials and labor, we urge remodelers to think like real-estate professionals first," says Clayton DeKorne, editor-in-chief of Remodeling Magazine. "When you adjust your focus to think like a broker first, you can dull clients' No. 1 pain point – cost – with a discussion of the amount that can be recouped, then go on to show them how to think like a remodeler by raising their understanding and appreciation of the total value, not just resale value, of a home."

Due in large part to sharp increases in material costs, the percentage of costs recouped at sale time is trending downward for all the replacement projects. Material costs tend to comprise a greater proportion of replacement projects compared with larger indoor remodels, however, which have a higher percentage of labor costs.

2019 top 10 projects by percentage of cost recouped

1. Garage door replacement (97.5%)

2. 2Manufactured stone veneer (94.9%)

3. Mid-range minor kitchen remodel (80.5%)

4. Wood deck addition (75.6%)

5. Siding replacement (75.6%)

6. Steel entry door replacement (74.9%)

7. Vinyl window replacement (73.4%)

8. Fiberglass grand entrance (71.9%)

9. Wood window replacement (70.8%)

10. Composite deck addition (69.1%)

Highlights from 2019 report

1.Rising materials costs impact rates of returnWhile the overall changes are modest, the latest Cost vs. Value report reflects the robust market the remodeling industry has enjoyed over the past year. But costs have correspondingly increased, and in some cases, significantly so. These increases are likely due to the tariffs that have roiled commodity markets, which have led to a slight downturn in the percentage of costs recouped for some projects; but overall, returns are up slightly compared to last year.

2.Curb appeal projects continue to provide the highest returns
Nine out of the top 10 high-return projects are exterior replacement – or high curb appeal – projects. The three exterior projects with the highest recoup on investment are garage door replacement (97.5%), manufactured stone veneer installation (94.9%), and a wood deck addition (75.6%). Siding replacement and window projects also provided high returns, with the highest recouping interior project being a minor kitchen remodel (80.5%).

3.New for 2019
Two new projects were added to the 2019 Cost vs. Value Report. The first is a roofing replacement job that adds standing-seam metal roofing. Compared with asphalt shingles, metal roofing costs significantly more but brings with it much greater durability. The second project is a revamp of the universal design bathroom, which was first introduced to Cost vs. Value in 2017. While the overall dimensions and features of the current project are comparable, the finishes and mechanicals – including tiled walls and shower, humidity-controlled ventilation and radiant-heat floors – are more consistent with an upscale project than the previous specs allowed.

4.Think like a broker
The reason for high returns on exterior projects, and especially façade facelifts, stems from the valuations set by the real estate community. "Curb appeal" and "first impressions" are central to a real estate professional's estimation of resale value. Granted, a home's exterior will only persuade potential buyers to see more, and first impressions can vary from one individual to the next. But the impact these impressions make is critical in setting the stage for what a buyer is willing to pay for a home.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Fla.’s housing market: Median prices, inventory up in Dec.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 22, 2019 – Florida's housing market reported higher median prices and increased inventory (active listings) in December compared to a year ago, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. However, buyer uncertainty from rising mortgage rates and the federal government's shutdown may have impacted home sales, which were lower than the level of sales a year ago. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 20,633 last month, down 9.9 percent compared to December 2017.

"Florida's housing sector is continuing to show signs that inventory levels are finally easing in many local markets after being constrained for a long time," says 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, =""> statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $185,000, up 2.8 percent over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in November 2018 was $260,500, up 5 percent from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $554,760; in Massachusetts, it was $395,000; in Colorado, it was $375,000; and in New York, it was $275,000.

Looking at Florida's condo-townhouse market in December, statewide closed sales totaled 8,156, down 11.4 percent compared to a year ago. Closed sales data continued to show fewer short sales and foreclosures in November: Short sales for condo-townhouse properties declined 39.7 percent and foreclosures fell 33.7 percent year-to-year; while short sales for single-family homes dropped 49.8 percent and foreclosures fell 26.8 percent year-to-year. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

"Notably, this year-over-year decline in sales for December was felt across the nation, not just in Florida, which is evidence that interest rates played at least some role in dampening the number of closings," says Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O'Connor. "Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates began to ramp up in September and had reached a multi-year high of close to 5 percent by mid-October, which is typically when financed sales closing in December go under contract."

Interest rates likely will continue to play a role in determining the direction of Florida's housing markets going forward, O'Conner adds. "Homebuyers considering sitting on the fence until prices come down might want to take note that we're also likely to see significantly higher mortgage rates by that point. While there has been a slight softening in the pace of home price growth since mid-2018, there are currently no signs that Florida home values will experience any wholesale declines over the next year."

Potential homebuyers should also note that Florida's active listings – or inventory levels of for-sale homes – have been trending up across the state, according to O'Connor.

"Statewide, active listings of existing single-family homes have been on the rise since July, which has helped contribute to the softening of price growth, and they continued to climb in December," he says. "At year's end, inventory was up over 13 percent compared to the end of 2017. Importantly, inventory levels are now rising across most of the pricing spectrum, including in some of the more affordable ranges."

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.64 percent in December 2018, up from the 3.95 percent averaged during the same month a year earlier.

To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Research & Statistics section on floridarealtors.org. Realtors also have access to local market stats (password protected) on Florida Realtors' website.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®